Election Issues Today

Is Montana in Play?

So reads a headline on today’s CBS News website.  The site carries an Associated Press story that reflects polling information from Montana indicating a closer race for President than anyone anticipated.

McCain seemed assured of a victory in Montana just two months ago, but now, with ten percent of likely voters still being undecided, McCain leads by only four points, 44 to 40.  That difference is within the normal “margin” of error, so, in effect, nobody knows where the voters really stand right now. 

Obama set sights on Montana early in the year, even spending the 4th of July holiday in Butte, with his family.  Since 1948, the State of Montana has gone for the GOP Presidentail nominee in every year except 1964 and 1992.    Obama has 19 campaign offices in Montana; McCain, NONE.  He share spaces in six GOP offices around the State.  Obama is spending a lot of money in Montana; McCain, NONE.

Additionally, the candidacy of Ron Paul has thrown a monkey wrench into the typically secure GOP areas of the State. See the details of Congressman Paul’s effect on the Montana race in the link below.

Here is a link to the CBS News Article:  Is Montana in Play?

The biggest news these last couple of days was the Anchorage Daily News (ADN) taking the somewhat controversial step of endorsing Barack Obama over John McCain. 

In endorsing Obama, the ADN said:

Gov. Palin’s nomination clearly alters the landscape for Alaskans as we survey this race for the presidency — but it does not overwhelm all other judgment. The election, after all is said and done, is not about Sarah Palin, and our sober view is that her running mate, Sen. John McCain, is the wrong choice for president at this critical time for our nation.

Sen. Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, brings far more promise to the office. In a time of grave economic crisis, he displays thoughtful analysis, enlists wise counsel and operates with a cool, steady hand. The same cannot be said of Sen. McCain.

I think it is very important to keep in mind that Alaska remains very firmly in the McCain camp. The ADN endorsement is not going to make Alaska “blue” but will certainly annoy the Governor.  

In a surprising Arizona poll, Barack Obama is gaining support, although McCain still leads in his home state and is expected to carry it. 

Obama is making inroads into many “red” states this week, but not likely to change the electoral vote outcome in those “red” states.  I think he is working very hard to keep the popular vote close in the “leaning” red states. 

With the election just about one week out, we ought to have MUCH to discuss on this site, but…such is not the case. As the election hits the home stretch there are fewer issues that rise up and grab our attention, and less and less excites me about the campaign and the campaigners.

Much is being left unsaid, by both camps, as this campaign seems to be more lop-sided than most of us had predicted. Of course, that is just polling, and I don’t hold polls in particularly high esteem.
 

READYING FOR THE THIRD FACEOFF

Where do the two election campaign contenders see themselves right now?  This is just prior to the third and final Presidential Debate.  This is 20 days to the election.  (Take a deep breath; it’s almost over.)

Polls show Barack Obama with (roughly) a ten point “preference” lead, in the most generous polls.  Other polls show four or five-point leads for Obama.  Electoral votes appear to be more lop-sided.  Some pollsters are seeing a trend that could lead to a landslide, whatever that would be.  Maybe if Obama took somewhere around 376 electoral votes, that might be a landslide.  I don’t know.  I think it will be closer than that, but I do think the McCain campaign is in trouble.  The scent of desperation is in the political air. 

Will we see that desperation manifest itself in the final Presidential Debate?  I don’t think John McCain can appear to be speaking from a position of weakness. He must be perceived as in control and confident.  He is a very experienced politician and should be able to pull it off.  If he attacks Obama on any of the right-wingnuts’ outlandish claims, he will be labeled as desperate.  We will watch Wednesday night and see if he looks like a loser.

Barack Obama senses victory at hand.  With that, he can become magnanimous, calm, reassuring….in a word…Presidential.  We will watch Wednesday night and see if he looks like a winner.

Are Pollsters Overlooking the Obvious?

Mark Blumenthal recently wrote in the National Journal about issues pollsters are facing (and fearing) in predicting voting patterns and outcome in this general election for President. (He mentions that George Stephanopoulos, of ABC, also recently summed up pollsters’ concerns on ABC’s “This Week ” .)

According to Blumenthal and Stephanopoulos, the three issues that pollsters fear could “throw off” their pre-vote polling include:

1.  The number of cell phone-only households and voters, a VERY large number of whom are in the 18 to 29 year-old age demographic. These people do not get polled during landline telephone surveys.  They seem to be in the Obama camp in large numbers. Question? Could this throw off the estimated strength Obama may demonstrate in “too close-to-call States? In the Weaker pro-McCain States?

2.  The number of African-Americans who may come out on Election Day, expected to be largely in support of Obama, while currently being disproportionately underestimated as “likely voters” in polls.

3.  The “Bradley Effect” also called the Bradley-Wilder Effect, in which White voters do not truthfully indicate their actual preference, in that they often change their minds at the last minute, in the voting booth, as they are simply not able to bring themselves to vote for a Black man. The Bradley Effect dates from the 1982 Gubernatorial race in California, when Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley had a good lead in the polls right up until election day, and then lost. Post election research showed that White people even lied to pollsters as they EXITED the polling place, especially if the pollster was Black. Also see my previous article: White People Lie to Pollsters.

All-in-all, the first two “unknowns” would appear to favor Senator Obama, and the third variable, the so-called “Bradley Effect,” would benefit Senator McCain.  So, could these variables cancel each other out?  We must also consider that recent elections have tended to reflect a very small, if any, “Bradley Effect,” although those elections were not for President.

Of course, since pollsters are aware of these possible problems in polling, they are now conducting research to validate or invalidate, so far as possible, each of these variables.

We shall see how it all turns out on Election Night. Fun.